More than 600,000 vehicles move through Almaty every day, making road transport the primary source of nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) emissions. Following the adoption of new Air Protection Rules introducing further restrictions on vehicle use, the Almaty Air Initiative Foundation has presented the results of its new study on the impact of road transport on air quality in Kazakhstan’s largest city.

According to the study, Almaty continues to experience a high rate of motorisation, which directly affects air quality and traffic conditions. Data from the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Kazakhstan as of September 2025 show that 797,000 vehicles are registered in the city — nearly 150,000 more than a year earlier (647,000). Of these, 714,000 are passenger cars. At the same time, the number of electric vehicles is growing rapidly: over the past year, their number nearly doubled, from 6,410 to 12,401. However, electric vehicles still account for only about 2% of the city’s total vehicle fleet. The study also shows that 30% of vehicles in Almaty are over 20 years old, while 25% are between 10 and 20 years old.

The growing vehicle fleet increases pressure on both the environment and road infrastructure. Traffic congestion extends travel times, increases fuel consumption, and raises emissions per kilometre travelled. During peak hours, pollution levels — a mixture of gases and particles including NO₂, PM2.5 and PM10 — increase severalfold along major highways. According to an earlier Almaty Air Initiative study (2024), average annual NO₂ concentrations in the city exceeded World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines:

– by 6.1 times in 2023
– by 5.9 times in 2024

Long-term exposure to traffic-related air pollution has been proven to be associated with increased asthma rates among children and adults, a higher risk of cardiovascular diseases, pregnancy complications, long-term cognitive impairment, and increased overall mortality. The highest risks are faced by residents living within 100–500 metres of major roads. People inside vehicles are also exposed to high levels of pollution: in traffic jams, in-cabin pollution levels can be up to 40% higher than during free-flowing traffic. The Almaty Air Initiative study shows that older vehicles generate a disproportionately high share of emissions.

Zhuldys Saulebekova, Executive Director of the Almaty Air Initiative Foundation, said:

“Our study confirmed a critical imbalance: it is not the entire traffic flow that generates most toxic emissions in Almaty, but only a specific segment of it. To see the real picture, together with Sergek Group we analysed one year of traffic flows — a total of 1.8 million unique vehicles. We found that every second vehicle in the city belongs to outdated environmental classes (0–4). This segment alone produces 78% of hazardous emissions while accounting for only about one-third of total mileage. Meanwhile, trucks make up just 3% of the traffic flow but contribute one-third of all nitrogen dioxide emissions. This means that by focusing on upgrading the dirtiest segment of the vehicle fleet, we can halve the burden on the lungs of city residents.”

Scenario analysis conducted by Almaty Air Initiative shows that upgrading vehicles of environmental classes 0–4 to the Euro 5 standard would reduce emissions by 67% for nitrogen oxides (NOx) and by 62% for particulate matter (PM). Modernising freight transport alone would reduce PM emissions by 50%, while transitioning all passengers to electric public transport could reduce PM2.5 levels by up to 86%.

The study’s findings indicate that the growth of Almaty’s vehicle fleet and the high share of older vehicles create dual pressure on air quality and transport infrastructure. Addressing this challenge requires a systemic approach: renewing the vehicle fleet, developing environmentally friendly public transport, and piloting low-emission zones should function as complementary measures.

The full study is available on the Almaty Air Initiative website:
https://air.org.kz/ru/research/ne-kolichestvo-a-kachestvo-kak-struktura-avtoparka-vliyaet-na-vozduh-v-almaty/