How science, governance and public policy helped reduce air pollution while sustaining economic growth

Air pollution is no longer viewed solely as an environmental issue. For large cities, it is a matter of public health, economic losses, urban infrastructure resilience, investment attractiveness and the quality of everyday life. For Almaty, the problem is especially sensitive due to several factors: high motorization, coal-based power generation, household heating, complex meteorological conditions and a growing urban burden.

Despite sustained public attention to air quality, systemic limitations remain in pollution management. The main challenges are not limited to reducing emissions. They also include understanding the real structure of emissions, building a reliable monitoring system, ensuring coordination between government agencies and turning environmental control from a formal procedure into an effective management tool.

For this reason, in April 2026, the Almaty Air Initiative Foundation organized an expert seminar with the participation of the Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences (CRAES), China’s research institution in the field of environmental science and air quality, which for several decades has provided scientific support for national air pollution control policy. 

China’s experience is especially relevant for Almaty not because Chinese cities or governance models are identical to Kazakhstan’s, but because China has faced a combination of challenges that closely resemble those currently seen in Almaty: dependence on coal, rapid growth in motor traffic, severe winter smog episodes, regional pollution transport and the need to modernize environmental governance without slowing economic growth. 

In Chinese cities, these problems emerged simultaneously and were addressed systematically over the course of a decade. However, the greatest value of China’s experience does not lie in technology alone. Air purification systems, cleaner fuel standards and electric transport can be purchased and introduced. What is much harder is to build a system in which these tools are applied consistently, their impact is measured, and compliance is backed by real enforcement. Over the past decade, China has managed to build precisely this kind of governance architecture, where data, science, monitoring, public policy and public demand work together as a single system. 

This is the aspect of China’s experience that is most valuable for Almaty.

This report reconstructs that system based on three presentations delivered by Professor Jian Gao of CRAES during the seminar, and explains which mechanisms enabled China to achieve a sustained reduction in air pollution while continuing to grow economically.

Author of the original presentations

Prof. Jian Gao, Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences (CRAES) – gaojian@craes.org.cn

Seminar organizers

Almaty Air Initiative, with the support of the Almaty Development Center

Brief summary

This report summarizes the presentations by Professor Jian Gao of CRAES on how China has built one of the world’s largest and most effective air quality management systems over recent decades.

The turning point came in 2013, when severe smog episodes in Beijing, with peak PM2.5 concentrations reaching 885 µg/m³, shifted air pollution from an environmental concern to a central issue of national policy, public health and economic resilience. In response, China adopted the National Air Pollution Control Action Plan, which combined reforms in energy, industry and transport with targeted measures for priority regions and seasons. The 72-hour “red alert” in 2015, declared when the CN AQI exceeded 200, further confirmed that public health had become a higher priority than the pace of industrial output.

China’s air pollution challenge has evolved alongside the country’s industrialization: in the 1980s, main concerns were coal smoke and acid rain, in the 1990s and 2000s, the focus shifted to PM10 and dust, after 2010, the country faced a PM2.5 crisis and severe smog episodes, and now, China is moving toward integrated control of PM2.5, ozone and CO₂ emissions.

The reform covered all major sources of pollution:

• household coal heating,
• coal-fired power generation and industry,
• transport,
• construction and other dust-related sources.

In 1999, coal combustion accounted for about 46% of PM2.5, while transport accounted for around 15%, by 2024, after a sharp decline in the contribution of coal, transport had become the largest source, accounting for about 50%. At the same time, the share of regional and transboundary pollution transport in the overall PM2.5 structure rose from 42% in 2020 to 57% in 2024, making macro-regional coordination increasingly important.

A major focus of the reform was household coal use, one of the most underestimated sources of pollution. Research showed that real emissions from the residential sector in some regions were around five times higher than official statistics suggested. China responded with a large-scale clean winter heating program. Around 39 million households were switched from raw coal to cleaner energy sources, and approximately 80 million tons of small-size coal were removed from circulation.

At the same time, China carried out a major industry modernization program based on a sector-by-sector approach: first coal-fired power generation, then ferrous metallurgy, followed by coking and cement. This reform was supported by ultra-low emission standards, digital monitoring and strict environmental supervision. Over several decades, particulate matter emission standards for power plants were tightened one hundredfold, from 1,000 mg/m³ to 10 mg/m³. Around 95% of thermal power plants and combined heat and power plants reached ultra-low emission levels.

The transport sector also underwent deep transformation. China moved from having no environmental standards to introducing China VIb, a standard stricter than Euro VI. It also renewed its vehicle fleet on a large scale, improved fuel quality, reduced diesel sulfur content from 2,000 ppm to 10 ppm, expanded electric transport and introduced digital monitoring of freight vehicle movements. By 2023, China had 20.4 million electric vehicles and hybrids, more than half of the global fleet.

A central factor behind the reform was a governance architecture that integrated data, science, monitoring, public policy and enforcement into one system. Under the national NAPC program, scientific teams were embedded in the work of 28 city administrations and environmental authorities. Their role was to help tailor measures to actual pollution sources and the seasonal conditions of each region.

Implementation relied on an integrated “ground-air-space” monitoring system, emergency response mechanisms for high-pollution episodes with 7 to 10-day forecasting, and the “One City, One Policy” model for 28 major cities. The 2015 law introduced a five-stage governance model: inspection, assignment of responsibility, enforcement control, warning and follow-up inspection. As part of the “2+26 cities” campaign, more than 5,600 national inspectors checked over 60,000 industrial facilities.

The key principle of the system is adaptability. Measures are not applied uniformly to all sources and all periods. They are adjusted by season, with winter measures focusing mainly on coal heating and industry, while summer measures target transport and photochemical pollution. They are also adapted to smog episodes, with differentiated restrictions for enterprises depending on their environmental performance; to geography, moving from individual cities to macro-regional coordination; and to the specific characteristics of each enterprise. This turns air quality policy from a set of fixed standards into a managed process, where every decision is based on current data and feeds back into the system through a cycle of “measurement → forecast → action → assessment → adjustment”.

China’s new policy phase focuses on reducing air pollution and CO₂ emissions through process modernization, raw material substitution, energy efficiency and low-carbon industrial solutions. At the same time, the country continues to tighten its air quality standards. The new GB 3095-2026 standard lowers the annual Class II PM2.5 limit from 35 to 25 µg/m³ and the daily limit from 75 to 50 µg/m³, bringing the country closer to the WHO interim targets.

At the same time, China’s key lesson is not only about technology or investment. The country’s experience shows that air pollution becomes a manageable problem only when:

• a reliable measurement system is in place,
• emission sources become visible,
• science is embedded in decision-making,
• control turns from a declaration into a functioning system,
• and clean air becomes part of public demand.

During the seminar, CRAES representatives noted that today around 90% of China’s population knows names of the main air pollutants and understands their impact on health. This is the result of many years of work to make air quality part of the public agenda.

This report analyzes approaches and solutions that may be useful for Almaty and other cities in Central Asia.

Part I. Why China’s Experience Matters for Almaty

1.1 Points of convergence

Similarities between Almaty and northern Chinese cities are one of the reasons why China’s air pollution control experience is so relevant. Both face the same set of sources: coal-fired combined heat and power plants as the backbone of heat supply, numerous private households with coal stoves in the lower part of the city, a rapidly growing vehicle fleet with low fuel standards, winter temperature inversions that trap emissions close to the ground, and a significant contribution from transboundary and regional pollution transport on days with severe smog. 

At the same time, the political and institutional context is fundamentally different. China has a centralized network of scientific institutions, a budget of an entirely different scale, legislative speed that is unavailable in most countries, and the ability to switch tens of millions of households from one fuel type to another within just a few years. Almaty cannot replicate these capabilities, nor should it try to. Despite these differences, the value of China’s experience lies in showing which elements form the core of scalable reform and which can help strengthen regional continuity.

The core elements include source attribution, an emissions inventory, a dense monitoring network, legal liability for non-compliance with standards, scientific expertise embedded in governance, and seasonal and spatial prioritization of measures. Centralized rotations of national inspectors, large-scale subsidies and enforcement services directly subordinated to the central level help implement reforms in regions based on a central case model. In China, that model was Beijing; in Kazakhstan, it could be Almaty and Astana. 

This report seeks to identify that distinction in each of the Chinese tools described.

1.2 Main Outcome: Decoupling Growth from Pollution

Before examining the mechanisms, it is worth noting what China regards as the central proof that its strategy works.

The divergence of these two curves does not in itself prove any specific mechanism, but it does show that an air pollution control program can be compatible with economic growth. The case of Chinese cities shows that the dilemma is false: it is possible to expand economic potential while simultaneously advancing the environmental agenda. However, this requires a well-designed approach, and the choice of institutional architecture can be decisive in determining the direction of development.

In modern Beijing, clear winter days are no longer rare. The slogan “blue skies have returned”, often attached to photos of such days, has already become almost ordinary for residents. Yet the success story behind that caption would have sounded almost unimaginable just ten years ago.

Part II. Essence of China’s Strategy

China is not the only country to have faced severe air pollution, nor was it the first to try to address it. Today, China’s experience is widely cited by international institutions for the intensity of its efforts and the speed of the results achieved. Of course, policy over the past twenty years has played a key role in dramatically improving the situation. However, the foundation of China’s approach was flexibility, which allowed the system to respond to the constantly changing nature of pollution.

In the 1980s, coal smog and SO₂ dominated, while large parts of the country suffered from acid rain with pH levels below 5.0. In the 1990s, acid rain reached its peak, while PM10 emerged as a major problem. In the 2000s, industrial dust and regional smog were added to the agenda. After 2010, and especially after the 2013 crisis, PM2.5 and severe smog episodes became the key issue. Today, in the 2020s, the focus is shifting toward the joint control of PM2.5 and ground-level ozone, alongside decarbonization.

This transition reflected not only a change in the types of pollutants, but also the increasing complexity of the problem itself. While earlier stages of pollution were mainly linked to individual large sources, modern air pollution is shaped by the interaction of multiple factors: transport, household heating, industry, secondary aerosol formation and interregional transport of pollutants. 

 Each phase required its own set of tools. Over these forty years, CRAES, the Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, provided scientific support for each transition: from the first aerial surveys in Taiyuan in 1982 to the development of modern emissions inventories and high-precision systems for analyzing PM2.5 sources. CRAES became a state scientific center with direct access to the Minister of Ecology and Environment MEE, operating through a nationwide network of 295 institutes and embedded in the formation of national policy.

2.1 2013 Crisis as a Turning Point

The turning point in public policy came after the winter smog crisis in Beijing in 2013. During the most severe episodes, PM2.5 concentrations reached extreme levels, and the pollution persisted for several weeks. 

Second turning point came with Beijing’s first ever air pollution “red alert”, announced on 8 December 2015. At the time, a red alert, the highest level in the national warning system, was issued when the China Air Quality Index, CN AQI, was forecast to remain above 200 for more than 72 hours. The key point was that the 2015 crisis acquired political significance: the state publicly recognized that citizens’ right to clean air took priority over the pace of industrial growth. 

The source analysis conducted after this first red alert, with participation of the minister, produced another important finding: the main contributor to the episode was residential coal burning in the private sector, a source that had previously remained largely invisible. From that moment on, household heating became one of the strategic priorities in the fight against smog.

2.2 Scientific Architecture of Reform

One of the defining features of the Chinese model was the embedded role of the scientific community in decision-making. 

The National Joint Research Center for Tackling Key Problems in Air Pollution Control (NAPC), is a key institution integrated into the development of measures, source analysis, smog episode forecasting and policy effectiveness assessment. CRAES leads the National Center, coordinating the work of 295 research institutes across China. In the presentations, this structure is described as the scientific backbone of national air pollution policy.

The role of CRAES goes beyond consultation. It serves as a link between the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, the technical committee, and the governors and mayors who are responsible for actually implementing pollution control programs. In the current configuration, scientists are effectively involved in designing city-level air quality measures and policies, covering the full range of issues from identifying sources to developing solutions.

2.3 Source Analysis as the Foundation of Reform
(Strategic basis: science-based policy)

CRAES representatives emphasize that China’s approach to air pollution control is hybrid. Global practice offers three main types of tools: command-and-control regulation, economic incentives and public participation. China’s strategy uses all three, but its distinctive feature lies in the combination of two design principles.

The first is the use of dual targets. Each plan sets both ambient air quality targets, such as PM2.5 concentrations in specific cities and regions, and emission targets, (tons of SO₂, NOx and VOCs). This approach helps protect air quality progress from bureaucratic manipulation “on paper”, when reported emissions fall but ambient air quality does not improve. Emission targets also protect against the opposite situation, when concentrations temporarily decrease because of meteorological conditions, while the underlying source structure remains unchanged.

The second principle is an action package built around the actual characteristics of real sources. Measures are designed with specific source profiles in mind: characteristics of coal stoves in rural households, a seven-year-old diesel truck, or a particular type of cement kiln, rather than relying on broad categories such as “industry” or “transport”. This approach requires detailed data that must be collected deliberately and systematically.

As a result, the system is guided from the top down through national targets, national standards and a unified planning logic, but implemented from the bottom up: each city develops its own source profile, and a tailored package of measures is selected accordingly. This combination of the two directions is what distinguishes China’s approach from a typical top-down command-and-control directive.

2.3.1 National Air Pollution Control Action Plans (2013-2023)

The decisive policy instrument was a series of national clean air action plans. Each plan covered several years and tightened the previous one:

Eight key policy directions with quantified results

The 2013-2017 plan introduced “three structural adjustments”: in energy, through the phase-out of scattered coal; in industry, through modernization toward ultra-low emissions; and in transport, through cleaner vehicles and fuels. These directions continued into subsequent plans. The 2018-2020 plan, known as the “Battle for Blue Skies”, tightened ultra-low emission requirements and extended them beyond the power sector. The 2021-2023 plan focused on diesel trucks, mobile machinery and interregional coordination. Each new cycle built on the achievements of the previous one and pushed the system further.

The plan identified eight cross-cutting policy areas and their measurable outcomes by 2023-2024.

By the end of these three plans, the measurable results across the main areas were as follows: 98% of coal-fired power plants had been upgraded to ultra-low emission standards, more than 200,000 small coal-fired boilers had been decommissioned, around 39 million rural households had been switched to clean heating, and more than 30 million old high-emission vehicles had been removed from the roads. 

2.3.2 Why Precise Source Attribution Comes First

At the center of this entire system is one analytical procedure: source analysis and attribution. It answers the question of which specific process or source is contributing to PM2.5 pollution here and now, and through this directs the rest of the policy response.

At the national level over a ten-year period, electricity generation and industrial combustion dominate in China. At the level of an individual city, however, the picture can change dramatically. 

In 1999, coal combustion remained the main source of pollution, accounting for 46%. This reflected the high dependence of industry, power generation and the residential sector on coal fuel. Dust emissions also made a significant contribution, at 26%, while transport accounted for only 15%.

By 2013-2017, the contribution of the coal sector began to gradually decline amid environmental reforms, industrial modernization and programs to replace coal-based heating. At the same time, the contribution of transport grew rapidly. 

Distribution of PM2.5 emission sources in Beijing, 1999-2024

It is important to note that in early assessments, the private, or residential, sector was not identified as a separate category, because emissions from individual heating and household coal use were largely included in the broader category of coal combustion. After the first reform packages, the analytical structure became more detailed, and in later periods the residential sector began to be assessed separately. This made it possible to more accurately estimate the contribution of individual household heating.

By 2024, the source structure had changed significantly: transport accounted for 50% of PM2.5 emissions, the residential sector for 18%, industry for 10%, dust for 10%, and other sources for 12%. For 2020 and 2024, the data also show a change in the overall PM2.5 structure. In 2020, local emissions dominated, accounting for 58%, compared with 42% from interregional pollution transport. By 2024, the share of transboundary pollution had risen to 57%, indicating the increasingly interregional nature of air pollution. 

China therefore faced a transformation typical of developing megacities: a shift from the dominance of stationary coal-based sources to a growing role of transport and regional pollution.

This shift in the source structure is sometimes mistakenly interpreted as a deterioration in the transport sector, but transport emissions did not increase. The reason for the change in the PM2.5 source structure was the sharp reduction in coal consumption, which increased the relative share of transport within a smaller overall pollution volume. At the same time, if the strategy had focused only on coal, the overall reduction in PM2.5 concentrations would have been much weaker, as transport would have continued to grow alongside the economy. This once again shows that work must be carried out across all sectors in parallel, rather than sequentially.

For Almaty, this conclusion is particularly important, since the city is also at a stage where the contribution of coal burning for heating in the private sector remains significant, while pressure from the transport sector is increasing.

Part III. Working with the Main Sources: Four Priority Sectors

At the national level, six source categories together explain almost all anthropogenic PM2.5: electricity generation, industrial combustion, industrial process emissions, residential combustion, transport and agriculture. The relative contribution of each category changed over the decade as the national program was implemented.

China also found that the pollution structure changes substantially depending on the season. Source identification is carried out at three time scales: decadal, for strategic planning; seasonal, for determining the timing of measures; and episodic, for emergency response. The seasonal pattern is as follows:

• In winter, contribution of coal combustion in the residential sector and power generation rises sharply.
• In summer, the role of secondary aerosols and photochemical processes, including NOx and VOCs, increases.
• In autumn and transitional periods, the influence of dust and transport becomes stronger.

This led to a shift from static measures to seasonally adaptive policy: in winter, restrictions focus on coal heating and industrial load; in summer, control over transport and VOCs is strengthened.

For Almaty, seasonality is also critical because of the winter heating period and unfavorable meteorological conditions.

Example: Beijing area, 2013

Urban seasonal analysis showed that the structure of pollution sources can change significantly throughout the year, even when the national-level picture appears relatively stable.

In the Beijing area in 2013, the residential sector dominated in winter, accounting for around 56% of PM2.5. This high contribution was linked to the widespread use of coal for household heating in the suburbs and rural areas around the capital. During the winter period, industry also remained a significant contributor, at 31%, while transport, agriculture and power generation played a much smaller role.

In autumn, the pollution structure became more balanced. The share of the residential sector fell sharply to 19%, as the heating season had not yet started in full. At the same time, the contribution of industry rose to 35%, transport to 15% and agriculture to 19%, while power generation accounted for around 12%.

This contrast showed that annual averages often conceal real seasonal pollution peaks. If policy relies only on annual data, it may underestimate the impact of winter heating or, conversely, overestimate the contribution of certain sources in other seasons.

Severe Pollution Episodes

Source apportionment at the level of individual pollution episodes is also critically important. Following Beijing’s first “red alert” for air pollution on 8 December 2015, the Minister of the Ecology and Environment (MEE) convened a group of scientists to identify the dominant pollution sources during severe smog episodes. The analysis consistently identified five major sources: coal combustion, industrial emissions, transportation, dust, and biomass burning. These five categories have remained the operational targets of all subsequent air pollution control packages.

Based on these findings, China began implementing an emergency response system that included:

• temporary production restrictions;
• transportation controls;
• construction dust management;
• rapid emission reduction measures during periods of adverse meteorological conditions.

Coal and Residential Heating:  In Search of the “Missing Coal”

Coal combustion is the source category from which China’s national air pollution policy historically began. It also became the focus of one of the most significant interventions of the past decade: the Rural Clean Heating Programme.

From Acid Rain Control to PM2.5 Reduction

China’s coal policy initially focused on combating acid rain and reducing SO₂ emissions. During the 1990s and early 2000s, the pH of precipitation in several regions of China fell to as low as 4.9, significantly below the acid rain threshold of 5.6

The government responded by: 

• installing flue gas desulphurization systems at power plants;
• tightening emission standards for the power sector;
• regulating major industrial emission sources.

By 2024, the average pH of rainwater had increased to 6.1, comparable to levels observed in the United States and the European Union. However, as SO₂ emissions declined, it became evident that winter PM2.5 pollution episodes persisted even after major emission sources had been modernized. This shifted the government’s attention toward residential heating.

The 2015 Crisis and the Fivefold Gap

During winter episodes of severe pollution, the contribution of coal could reach 60% of PM2.5, while the state effectively did not control a significant share of these emissions. 

Comparison of coal consumption based on survey data and official statistics

The “Lost Coal” Investigation: The Largest Inventory of the Private Sector

After identifying the problem, China launched a large-scale, multi-year program to trace the so-called “lost coal” — dispersed household consumption that was absent from official statistics. 

The investigation covered:

• Areas and shares of heated housing in northern provinces
• Coal consumption volumes and the structure of energy use at the township level
• Cross-links between population size, coal consumption, and emissions
• Distribution of housing types
• Indoor flue gas measurement campaigns, including flue gas dilution, infrared multi-component analysis, absorption and scattering measurements, black carbon measurements, particle size distribution analysis, and filter sampling
• Installation of coal consumption meters for each household
• Deployment of micro-monitoring stations around the perimeter of villages
• Monitoring of outdoor temperature and perceived indoor temperature

The investigation showed that by 2016, around 40 million households in northern China consumed approximately 100 million tons of raw coal annually, averaging about 2.5 tons per household during the heating season. This figure became the target benchmark for the clean heating program.

Why Household Coal Proved Particularly Dangerous

Despite its relatively small volume in the context of the entire economy, the household sector made a disproportionately high contribution to pollution. The main reason was the use of low-quality “dirty” raw coal in small household stoves which, unlike power plants, have no filtration systems. This leads to the direct emission of up to 99% of pollutants into the ground-level atmospheric layer. 

The quality of the fuel itself created an additional problem. Before the reforms, untreated loose coal with high sulfur content and ash content of 20-35% was widely used in the household sector in northern China. This fuel produced significantly higher emissions of PM2.5, SO₂, and black carbon compared with higher-quality fuels. This made household heating one of the key drivers of winter PM2.5.

This example is relevant for Almaty, where Ekibastuz coal is used at the city’s power plants. This fuel is characterized by high ash content, up to 42%, and is one of the most challenging fuels in terms of solid waste generation. The burden on purification systems remains high even when industrial equipment is used.

At the same time, accurate data on the structure and quality of fuel used in the private sector of Almaty and the surrounding areas is limited in the public domain. Given that coal is used in low-efficiency stoves in most households, environmental consequences for residential areas may be significantly more severe than those from industrial facilities, due to the absence of dispersion and the direct emission of pollutants into the human breathing zone.

The Clean Winter Heating Program

To specifically address this source of pollution, China launched a pilot clean winter heating program in northern regions in 2017. The reform took 7-8 years and became the largest pollution-control intervention of the decade. 

Financial Model

Since 2017, special annual funding of 3 to 10 billion yuan per city, approximately USD 440 million to USD 1.46 billion, was allocated to each participating city in northern China for three consecutive years. Financial model was based on distributing the burden across three levels:

• Central government financed infrastructure, including gas networks, power grids, and heat mains.
• Local authorities ensured implementation and connection.
• Households participated partially, which increased the sustainability of the transition, as their own financial contribution helped prevent a reversal back to coal-based heating.

CRAES scientists describe the program as the most important pollution-control measure in northern China over the past decade, both because of its scale and because household combustion has a high pollution contribution per tonne of fuel: household stoves emit far more PM2.5 per unit of heat than a modern power plant.

Interim Measures: Washed Coal, Briquetting, and Certification

In regions where an immediate transition to gas or electricity was technically impossible, a strategy of interim fuel quality improvement was introduced. This is a critically important element of the model, as it allows emission reductions to begin before the infrastructure transition is completed.

• Washed coal. Mandatory standards were introduced for coal cleaning and “washing” before sale in order to reduce ash and sulfur content.
• Briquetting. Transition was made to the use of coal briquettes with a fixed shape and composition, which improves combustion efficiency and reduces specific emissions.
• Supply chain control. Illegal trade in low-quality “dirty” coal was banned through a market supervision system and replaced with certified “green” coal.
• Fuel quality standardization. Transition was carried out iteratively: from raw coal to “clean” coal, and then to full replacement with environmentally clean energy sources.

3.2 Power Plants and Industry

While the household heating program quickly reduced one very large source, industrial control was a longer campaign carried out sector by sector. This section describes its legal foundation, operational enforcement model, technological modernization of the energy sector, classification of enterprises, and the transition toward integrated control of pollution and carbon emissions.

Unlike the household sector, the key role here was played not by subsidies to the population, but by a combination of strict legislation, continuous cyclical enforcement control, technological modernization, and differentiated regulation of enterprises.

The 2015 Law and the Five-Step Governance Model

The legal foundation was the revised Law on the Prevention and Control of Atmospheric Pollution, which entered into force on January 1, 2016. The law covers emission control in the energy sector, industry, transport, agriculture, and construction. The key change enshrined in the law was the shift from declarative regulation to mandatory regulation: environmental requirements became a condition for access to operation, rather than a recommendation.

The law itself would not have been effective without an enforcement mechanism. This is where a five-step governance model was introduced, becoming the core of institutional control practice:

Modernization of Coal-Fired Power Plants

A key stage was the technological transformation of coal-fired generation while preserving its role as a baseload energy source. The main emphasis was not on the immediate replacement of coal, but on a radical change in combustion standards and emission treatment.

The history of the development and implementation of dust collection technologies at power plants is described in more detail in Table A2 in the Appendix to this report.

Optimization of Capacity Structure and the Role of Renewable Energy

At the same time, state policy was aimed not only at installing pollution-control equipment, but also at structurally modernizing generation itself: consolidating capacity, decommissioning small and technologically outdated plants, and gradually diversifying the energy balance.

Around 93.96% of coal-fired generation is concentrated in large, modernized power units with capacities ranging from 300 to 1,000 MW and above, which ensures a higher level of emission control and more efficient technology deployment.

Distribution of Power Unit Capacity in China

At the same time, structure of the entire power system was changing. Although the absolute installed capacity of thermal generation continued to grow in response to demand from industry and urbanization, its relative share in the national energy balance steadily declined. While in the early 2010s thermal generation accounted for around 70-75% of installed capacity, by 2023 its share had fallen to approximately 50%.

Dynamics of Installed Thermal Generation Capacity and Its Share in China’s Energy Balance (2010-2023)

The decline in coal’s share did not occur through a sharp rejection of coal, but through faster growth of alternative energy sources. Wind, solar, nuclear, and hydropower capacities grew particularly rapidly. The structure of installed capacity shows a gradual reduction in the dominance of thermal generation and an increase in the share of low-carbon sources, especially after 2015, when large-scale construction of solar and wind power plants accelerated.

Changes in the Structure of Installed Capacity in China’s Energy Sector, 2010-2023

In essence, China implemented a dual strategy in the energy sector: 

• in the short term, to make existing coal-fired generation as clean as possible through ultra-low emission standards;
• in the long term, to gradually reduce systemic dependence on coal through the development of renewable energy sources and changes in the structure of the energy balance.

Up to half of the growth in new generation is provided by renewable energy sources, although their intermittency still requires the preservation of a coal-fired base for energy security. Traditional ignition schemes, including fuel oil, are gradually being phased out. At the same time, coal-fired generation continues to perform the function of ensuring energy stability, since the high share of wind and solar generation still requires reserve baseload capacity. 

Industry: Differentiated Regulation

Management of the industrial sector, covering around 3.5 million enterprises in 39 key industries, was transferred to a differentiated regulation system based on the technological maturity of each enterprise. This approach simultaneously creates an incentive for modernization and serves as an emergency response tool.

3.3 Transport Regulation

By the time China began achieving significant progress in reducing emissions from coal, household heating, and industry, transport had become a new major source of PM2.5 in the largest cities. The example of Beijing illustrates this particularly clearly: while in the late 1990s transport accounted for around 15% of PM2.5, by 2024 its contribution had increased to 50%.

The growth in transport’s contribution did not mean that vehicles had begun to pollute more in absolute terms. On the contrary, this largely happened because other sources — coal, household heating, and industry — were declining faster. At the same time, motorization, logistics flows, commuter migration, and regional transit were increasing.

The proposed measures focused primarily on the most polluting segment: diesel transport.

Four Areas of the “Battle Against Diesel Transport”

In China, the transport strategy is often described as a “battle against diesel trucks,” because heavy freight transport made a disproportionately high contribution to NOx and PM emissions.

The policy was structured around the following areas:

Vehicle Standards: From No Requirements to China VI-b

Vehicle emission standards were consistently tightened across all categories from 1999 to 2024. The progression was the same across all categories: passenger cars (gasoline, diesel, and gas-powered), heavy-duty trucks (gasoline, diesel, and gas-powered), motorcycles, mopeds and three-wheeled vehicles, low-speed vehicles, and non-road mobile machinery (diesel engines and small gasoline engines).

• No requirements → China 1 → China 2 → China 3 → China 4 → China 5 → China 6a → China 6b

 

Clean Vehicle Fleet, Clean Fuel, Modern Supervision

Fleet Renewal and Electrification

By 2023, there were 20.4 million electric vehicles on the roads in China, accounting for more than half of the global total. The transition is being actively driven from the commercial side: EV taxis, EV ride-hailing vehicles, EV logistics, and EV street-cleaning vehicles have become standard fleet purchases in major cities.

Dynamics of China’s Vehicle Fleet Structure by Environmental Emission Standards and the Share of New Energy Vehicles, 2010-2022

Economic Incentives and Disincentives

The fleet renewal policy was based not on bans, but on economic principles. Incentives were created for new vehicles, while operating conditions for old vehicles were made more restrictive.

In major cities, elements of LEZs were introduced: zones with movement restrictions for old vehicles, logistics corridors, and automatic detection of violations through cameras.

Fuel Quality

Automotive diesel, ordinary diesel, and some marine fuels were unified into a single specification. Commercially available diesel was brought into compliance with automotive diesel standards, while sulfur content was reduced from 2,000 ppm to 10 ppm, a 200-fold decrease. This single change became a prerequisite for the reliable operation of modern after-treatment systems, such as DPF and SCR, on Chinese roads.

Fleet Management at Key Enterprises

Around 6 million heavy-duty trucks operate in key industries, accounting for approximately 70% of all heavy-duty trucks in China. The largest users are the ferrous metallurgy, cement, and petrochemical industries. Management system was created that directly links these enterprises to environmental supervision: the fleet of each enterprise is tracked, and the enterprise is held responsible for emission performance.

Modern Supervision of In-Use Transport

A real-time tracking system for heavy-duty vehicles in operation was created. In Beijing alone, the remote online monitoring system covers approximately 140,000 diesel vehicles. Each truck is equipped with a GPS tracker that records its route, mileage, operating time, and spatial distribution of activity. Based on these data, emissions are calculated and the largest sources of pollution are identified: not individual drivers, but logistics companies. 

This is what the digital truck monitoring system looks like:

Real-Time Heavy-Duty Truck Tracking System

In addition, road camera infrastructure is used, capable of recording emissions directly from exhaust pipes. Control extends not only to public roads, but also to off-road machinery, including construction, port, and airport equipment.

3.4 Urban Dust and Construction Emissions

Urban dust became the fourth source in the Chinese model after coal, industry, and transport. It includes construction dust, exposed soil, road dust, and natural wind-driven sources.

Unlike coal or transport, the main emphasis here was placed not on technological modernization, but on operational control. Satellite observation, lidar systems, and ground-based PM sensors were used to identify sources, especially at construction sites and open areas.

Monitoring uses a combination of methods:

• Satellite remote sensing of dust and smoke plumes, with simultaneous identification of gaseous precursors such as NO₂ and SO₂;
• Active lidar to determine the vertical distribution of aerosols, the structure of the haze layer, backscatter and extinction, and aerosol types;
• Visible and infrared measurements of aerosol optical depth to assess haze distribution, its spatial and temporal variability, and identify fire hotspots; this is also used to detect the burning of agricultural residues;
• Ground-based networks of “smart” PM sensors deployed at construction sites and exposed soil areas.

In Beijing, the amount of settled dust decreased by 37.9% compared with 2019, while the area of green space exceeded 8 million hectares. The network of “smart” sensors serves as an enforcement support layer. 

Dust control tools are operational rather than technological: requirements for covering and watering specific sites, suspension of dust-generating works during episodes of severe pollution, and reclamation of exposed land. 

Part IV. Operational Implementation Model: How China Ensured Enforcement of Environmental Policy

One of the key reasons for China’s success was not only the presence of sectoral measures in energy, industry, transport, and heating, but also the creation of a system that made it possible to continuously track pollution, forecast crisis episodes, and quickly adapt measures to the conditions of a specific city.

In effect, China built an enforcement infrastructure in which decisions are made not on the basis of one-off studies, but on the basis of a continuous flow of data.

In CRAES reports, this system is considered one of the main factors behind the sustained reduction of PM2.5.

4.1 Integrated Monitoring and Emissions Inventory

China built what the reports describe as the country’s largest comprehensive three-dimensional air monitoring and observation network, concentrated in the BTH region and adjacent areas, combining ground-based stations, satellite data, lidars, and mobile monitoring. The system made it possible to track pollution simultaneously at three levels: the local source, the city level, and interregional transport.

In parallel with the modernization of monitoring, the emissions inventory was also transformed:

In addition, a causal analysis platform was introduced, making it possible to examine severe pollution episodes and determine which factors played the decisive role: weather, transport, industry, or household combustion.

It is precisely this combination — dense “ground-air-space” observations plus a high-resolution inventory — that makes it possible to conduct source analysis at the city level and on the time scale of individual severe pollution episodes.

4.2 Emergency Response System for Severe Pollution

China moved away from a model in which authorities respond only after air quality has already deteriorated. 

Preliminary Assessment

• Air quality forecasting for 7-10 days
• Database of severe pollution cases, serving as a repository of past episodes used for forecasting by analogy
• Causal analysis before the event

Real-Time Response

• Dynamic causal analysis platform
• Optimized early warning criteria
• Differentiated control within a performance-based hierarchy (A/B/C/D classification of plants described in Section 5)
• Big data analytics for enforcement

Follow-Up Assessment

• Tracking and assessment of progress
• Post-event evaluation and incorporation of lessons learned back into the case database

The system was used to ensure that air quality complied with standards across all zones and at all sites during major events. In this context, the presentation specifically mentions Beijing and Yanqing, and the same system architecture is now standard for the BTH, region throughout the entire heating season.

4.3 “One City, One Policy”

The third result is institutional. “One City, One Policy” is a model under which 28 research teams, one for each priority city in the BTH region and adjacent areas, are physically embedded in the host city and work jointly with the local administration and the local Environmental Protection Bureau.

The task of each team is to translate the national framework into a city-specific package. The standard work program is as follows:

4.4 Data Transparency and Public Oversight

Public access to data became an additional element of the system. Chinese citizens were able to track air quality in real time through mobile applications, see how polluted their district was, and choose the best travel route. Even sensors installed on taxis are used to collect real-time data, making it possible to map the distribution of dust across the entire city. This strengthened public oversight and increased pressure on local authorities and enterprises. Pollution ceased to be a closed technical issue and became part of the public agenda.

 

4.5. 4.5 Dynamics of Targets and Scaling of the National Environmental Control Model

4.5.1 Assessment of Actual Results: Breaking the Correlation Between Industrial Growth and PM2.5 Pollution Levels

Annual average PM2.5 concentration, µg/m³

4.5.2 New National Ambient Air Quality Standard

China’s new national ambient air quality standard, GB 3095-2026, represents an important institutional shift from a policy of emergency reduction of extreme pollution to a more ambitious model focused on long-term reduction of public health risks. New PM2.5 limits:

Class I standards apply to nature reserves, scenic areas, and other zones requiring special protection. 

Class II standards apply to areas where most of the country’s population lives: residential, commercial, mixed-use, and industrial zones.

The new Class II daily standard of 50 µg/m³ corresponds to WHO Interim Target 3 for 24-hour PM2.5.

Part V. Key Lessons from China’s Experience

Ten years of Chinese reforms make it possible to identify seven main lessons that are important not only for China, but also for any country beginning systematic work on air pollution.

Lesson 1. Political Will Is the Starting Point for Change

Visible progress in fighting air pollution begins when the state treats it not as one problem among many, but as a mandatory priority. In China, this happened after two crises: the smog episode of January 2013 and the “red alert” of December 2015. The episode went down in history not because of record concentrations, but as the moment when the state paradigm changed: there was public recognition that citizens’ right to a healthy environment was more important than the pace of industrial growth.

Without this, neither science, nor technology, nor financing can work as a single system. They remain a set of fragmented studies, measures, and subsidies instead of a consistent state policy.

Lesson 2. Measurements and Data are the Foundation of Effective Policy

Source attribution, a detailed emissions inventory, and real-time monitoring are the foundation of effective policy. Without data, prioritization becomes a matter of political preference, and unpopular measures are difficult to justify to the public and businesses.

China did not begin by closing coal-fired power plants, but by searching for “lost coal” — a large-scale research program that showed that official statistics accounted for large-scale energy facilities but barely reflected emissions from private houses, villages, and small businesses. As a result, actual emissions in a number of regions turned out to be approximately five times higher than official data: around 40 million households were burning about 100 million tons of raw coal annually. These data became the basis for the clean heating program.

At the same time, China radically modernized its monitoring system and emissions inventory: the number of stationary sources increased from 76,000 to 190,000, spatial resolution improved from 10 km to 3 km, temporal resolution shifted from annual to monthly, and the number of monitored pollutants increased from three to seven. The entire subsequent air quality management system was built on this infrastructure.

Lesson 3. Reducing Pollution Requires Simultaneous Work Across All Sectors

From the very beginning, China’s strategy was built as parallel work across all major pollution sectors: energy, industry, and transport. Each cycle of the National Action Plan, 2013-2017, 2018-2020, and 2021-2023, simultaneously tightened measures in all three areas.

This radically changed the structure of PM2.5. While in 1999 coal accounted for around 46% of pollution and transport for 15%, by 2024 transport had become the largest source, with a share of around 50%, while the contribution of coal had sharply declined. Transport did not begin to pollute more; its share increased after coal emissions were reduced.

At the same time, the role of transboundary transport increased: in Beijing, its share rose from approximately 42% in 2020 to 57% in 2024. This required a shift from managing individual cities to coordinating entire macro-regions. China’s experience shows that working with only one sector or one territory does not solve the problem. It merely changes the structure of the remaining pollution.

Lesson 4. Every City Needs Its Own Air Quality Policy

The structure of pollution differs fundamentally even between neighboring cities: in some, transport dominates; in others, industry or household coal heating does. That is why, in China, the national plan sets the general framework, while specific measures are developed at the city level based on an analysis of real emission sources.

The institutional basis of this approach was the “One City, One Policy” model: 28 scientific teams were embedded in the work of 28 priority cities in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. Together with local administrations and environmental authorities, they worked on emissions inventories, source attribution, pollution forecasting, sectoral measures, and annual policy adjustment.

The institutional basis was the “One City, One Policy” model: 28 scientific teams were embedded in the work of 28 priority cities in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. Together with local administrations, they developed emissions inventories, carried out source attribution, forecast pollution, and designed measures based on the principles of “one industry, one strategy” and “one enterprise, one strategy.”

This made it possible to adapt measures to the pollution structure of each city and adjust them quickly as the situation changed.

Although the Chinese model relies on a centralized network of scientific institutes and significant state resources, its basic principle is transferable: a permanent working group of scientists and practitioners under the city administration, with access to data and a regular working routine, can become the minimum institutional basis for effective air quality policy.

Lesson 5. Technology, Financing, and Regulation Work as a System

Chinese reforms relied on the simultaneous modernization of energy, transport, and industry. In the energy sector, emission treatment efficiency was increased to more than 99%, while standards for thermal power plants were tightened by a factor of 100, from 1,000 to 10 mg/m³. By 2023, around 98% of coal-fired capacity complied with ultra-low emission standards.

In transport, the transition to China VI-b was accompanied by online emissions monitoring through OBD systems, a reduction in sulfur content in diesel from 2,000 to 10 ppm, and digital control of heavy-duty machinery. By 2023, the country had 20.4 million electric vehicles and hybrids, while more than 30 million old high-emission vehicles had been removed from the roads.

In industry, direct monitoring covered the largest sources, while the remaining 3.5 million enterprises were controlled through satellite data, energy consumption, and calculated emissions models.

Technologies were scaled through financial and regulatory systems. Over 7-8 years, the clean heating program shifted around 39 million households away from raw coal and removed around 80 million tons of dispersed coal from circulation. At the same time, 3.5 million enterprises were divided into Classes A-D, where the level of environmental modernization directly affected their operating regime and access to preferences.

The main conclusion is that neither technology, nor financing, nor regulation produces results on its own. Only their combination works.

Lesson 6. Enforcement Control System Makes Standards Work

China’s transition from declarative environmental regulation to a system of inevitable enforcement took place after the adoption of the 2015 Law, which made environmental requirements a mandatory condition for operation, while violation of standards became grounds for restrictions or suspension of activities.

The system was built on a five-step model: inspection → assignment of responsibility → enforcement control → warning → re-inspection. Each violation was assigned to a specific authority or official, with a deadline for correction.

The operational basis was the “2+26 cities” campaign: within one year, 25 rounds of inspections were conducted, 5,600 rotating federal inspectors were involved, and more than 60,000 industrial facilities were inspected. The constant rotation of inspectors reduced corruption risks, while the high frequency of inspections made violations economically unprofitable.

The main conclusion is that standards begin to work only when norms, control, responsibility, and consequences are combined into a single enforcement system.

Lesson 7. Cross-Cutting Principle of Chinese Policy is Adaptability

China’s air quality policy is built as an adaptive system in which measures change depending on the season, pollution episode, geography, and characteristics of the enterprise.

Seasonal adaptation. In winter, the main focus shifts to coal heating and industry; in summer, to transport, VOCs, and photochemical pollution. Control and restriction priorities change accordingly.

Episodic adaptation. During smog episodes, air quality is forecast for 7-10 days, and control measures are automatically strengthened depending on the expected pollution level.

Geographic adaptation. As transboundary transport increased, coordination shifted from the level of individual cities to the level of macro-regions, while within cities, measures were adapted to the local emission structure.

Enterprise-level adaptation. The regulatory regime depends on the level of environmental modernization of the enterprise: restrictions and requirements differ for companies with different levels of emissions and technological maturity.

The system works as a continuous cycle: measurement and analysis → forecasting and design of measures → implementation → evaluation and adjustment. The results of each pollution episode are used for subsequent forecasts and policy updates.

The main conclusion is that universal standards for all sources and seasons are either excessive or insufficient. Effective policy requires constant adaptation to the actual structure of pollution.

Applicability of China’s Experience to Almaty

Almaty and China are addressing the same task: reducing air pollution amid coal-fired generation, household coal heating, a growing vehicle fleet, and complex meteorology. The difference lies in scale and institutional environment: China works with millions of households and thousands of inspectors; Almaty works with tens of thousands of homes and distributed responsibility between the city, the region, and ministries.

Directly copying the Chinese model is neither possible nor necessary. But its key principles are fully applicable to Almaty: recognition of air pollution as a state priority, an infrastructure for measurement and source attribution, an honest inventory of the private coal sector, parallel work with all pollution sources, local adjustment of measures to the emission structure, a combination of technology, financing, and regulation, effective enforcement control, and adaptive policy.

The main lesson from China for Almaty is not the transfer of scale or technology, but the transfer of a governance architecture in which data, science, financing, regulation, and public demand work as a single system. Many elements of this system already exist in Almaty, but they remain fragmented and require interagency and interregional coordination.

Almaty is now at the beginning of the path that China has taken over the past decade, and much remains to be done before the air pollution problem is finally resolved.

 

Appendix 

Table 1 Glossary and Abbreviations

Table 2. History of Dust Collection Technologies at Chinese Power Plants

 

– End of Report –