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The modernization of Almaty’s CHP-2, which was 94% complete as of the end of September, involves switching to natural gas and reducing pollutant emissions by nearly 14 times when the new gas-fired unit is operating. However, a complete phase-out of coal is not yet planned: four coal-fired boilers will remain on standby, and the project’s emission limits, accounting for their potential operation, have been established through 2040. Experts from Almaty Air Initiative analyzed the documents following the public hearings held on September 29.
The project’s actual impact on air pollution in Almaty will depend not only on the commissioning of the gas-fired unit but also on how frequently and for how long the coal-fired boilers continue to operate. This was the conclusion reached by the foundation after participating in the hearings and comparing the responses provided with the published project documentation and written responses from Almaty Power Plants (APP).
Why CHP-2 Needs to Switch to Natural Gas
CHP-2 burns approximately 2.5 million tonnes of coal annually and is one of Almaty’s major stationary sources of air pollution. According to Climate TRACE estimates, the plant emitted approximately 94 tonnes of PM2.5 in 2024, placing it among the top 10% of the largest sources of this harmful pollutant among facilities tracked by the platform. Switching the plant to natural gas is therefore particularly important for improving the city’s air quality.
As part of the modernization project, a new combined-cycle gas turbine (CCGT) unit has been constructed at CHP-2. During the public hearings, a plant representative stated that the unit was expected to be commissioned in December 2026, while APP’s written response indicated that equipment would be commissioned in stages starting in January 2027.
However, commissioning the gas-fired unit does not mean an immediate phase-out of coal. Coal-fired boilers will continue to operate during the commissioning and testing phase, while the transition to gas-only operation, without parallel use of coal-fired boilers, is expected in 2028.
How Much Will Emissions Decrease?
When the combined-cycle unit operates on natural gas, total emissions of regulated pollutants are expected to decrease by nearly 14 times — from approximately 37,500 to 2,700 tonnes per year. Under normal gas-fired operation, sulfur dioxide and inorganic dust emissions from the main smokestacks are expected to fall to zero.
However, the project’s emission limits for the entire CHP-2 facility, including the reserve coal-fired units, are:
- Approximately 31,200 tonnes per year in 2027–2030.
- 26,600 tonnes per year in 2034–2040.
These limits are calculated for a maximum-emissions scenario (in case the natural gas supply is interrupted for any reason) and do not represent forecasts of actual emissions.
The materials presented do not specify how much pollution the plant will emit under normal operating conditions after the gas-fired unit is commissioned.
What About the Filters?
Modernization of the dust collection systems on the four coal-fired boilers that will remain in service is scheduled only for 2030–2033. According to the project documentation, the installation of new electrostatic precipitators should reduce the permitted dust concentration in emissions from 450 to 200 mg/Nm³.
APP representatives explain this timeline by the need to design and replace equipment in stages. As a result, during the first years following the commissioning of the gas-fired unit, the reserve coal-fired boilers will remain available without the dust collection system upgrades planned under the project.
Zhuldyz Saulebekova, Head of Almaty Air Initiative:
“Switching CHP-2 to natural gas could significantly reduce air pollution in Almaty. However, the actual results will depend on how frequently and for how long the coal-fired boilers continue to operate. That is why residents need open access to data on actual coal consumption, boiler operating hours, and emission volumes.”
How Much More Coal Will Be Burned, and How Will It Be Monitored?
CHP-2 currently burns approximately 2.5 million tonnes of coal annually.
For the 2027–2029 transition period, the project materials indicate potential coal consumption of up to 1.7–1.8 million tonnes per year in case the coal-fired units need to substitute for the gas-fired unit.
However, the following have not yet been publicly defined:
- A precise annual limit on coal consumption.
- The conditions under which coal-fired boilers may be activated.
- The maximum permitted duration of their operation.
Automatic emissions monitoring systems have already been installed on two of CHP-2’s coal-fired smokestacks. However, at the time of the public hearings, these data were not accessible to residents.
New dust filters on the remaining coal-fired boilers are scheduled for installation only in 2030–2033.
Almaty Air Initiative experts believe that assessing CHP-2’s actual impact on the city’s air quality requires public access to data on coal consumption, boiler operating hours, and actual emissions.
In this regard, Almaty Air Initiative proposes establishing three requirements:
- Introduce a verifiable annual limit on coal consumption.
- Define the conditions for activating reserve coal-fired boilers and establish a clear deadline for completing the transition period.
- Make automatic emissions monitoring data publicly accessible and publish annual reports on actual coal consumption, boiler operating hours, and emission volumes.
Transcript of the Public Hearings on CHP-2 Modernization:
About the Foundation
Almaty Air Initiative is a foundation dedicated to improving air quality in Almaty. The foundation develops independent air quality monitoring systems, conducts research, makes air pollution data more accessible, and facilitates dialogue between civil society, businesses, and government institutions.
In 2026, its international activities expanded under the Taza Initiative brand, which began operations in Nepal.
The foundation was established at the initiative of Arsen Tomsky, CEO and founder of inDrive.
Media Contacts
Anna Nikitenko
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