Modern Technologies of Applied Environmental Modelling: New Prospects for Almaty

On May 23, 2025, a seminar was held in Almaty dedicated to exploring the potential of applied environmental modelling technologies for air pollution monitoring.

The event gathered representatives of the Almaty Akimat Project Office, environmental scientists, public organizations, and other stakeholders.

Why This Matters for Almaty

Located in a mountain basin, Almaty faces chronic issues of pollutant accumulation in the lower atmosphere.

Frequent temperature inversions, weak winds, and dense urban development exacerbate the problem.

As a result, the city records hundreds of high-pollution episodes each year, particularly during the winter months.

At present, environmental monitoring in Almaty primarily focuses on visual reporting of PM2.5 and PM10 particulate matter.

However, this approach is insufficient for effective decision-making.

As the seminar emphasized, the city must transition from information to management — using data-driven tools that allow for analysis, forecasting, and identification of each source’s contribution to total emissions.

How Is Air Quality Currently Monitored?

In Kazakhstan, air quality monitoring and assessment still rely on the OND-86 regulatory methodology, developed by Soviet scientists in 1986.

This method:

does not account for complex urban topography and building density,

ignores vertical pollutant dispersion, and uses outdated coefficients and generalized estimates.

For a metropolis where emission sources include transport, power plants, heating systems, and the private sector, such a methodology fails to capture the full picture and prevents the formation of a rational and equitable environmental policy.

What Does the Expert Propose?

Invited expert Alexey Romanov, PhD in Engineering, Associate Professor, and Founder of A2R&DLab, presented the GRAMM/GRAL technology — a modern modelling system based on the Lagrangian approach to simulating pollutant dispersion.

On an interactive map developed using this model, air pollution data are visualized with consideration of microrelief, building density, climatic specifics, pollutant source locations, and other factors.

This approach makes it possible to evaluate the partial contribution of each emission source to pollution at a specific point.

The model has already been successfully implemented in cities such as Graz, Zurich, Heidelberg, and Krasnoyarsk.

Its capabilities allow for scenario-based forecasting — for instance, how air quality would change if power plants were converted to gas, filters were installed, vehicle fleets were renewed, or low-emission zones were introduced.

The full seminar report is available here: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1YOfu_1QgwzpEWdH1UOhEtHAO1TKGboXd/view