The Almaty Air Initiative Foundation analysed data from the international Climate TRACE coalition, which uses satellite observations and artificial intelligence to track emission sources around the world. The analysis showed that one of Almaty’s three major stationary sources of PM 2.5 emissions is among the top 10 % of global polluters in this category.

By comparing the Climate TRACE mapping data with open sources, these facilities have been identified as Almaty Combined Heat and Power Plants 1, 2 and 3. The facility marked by the system as a “super emitter” is CHP-2, due to its installed capacity and the use of high-ash coal as its primary fuel. According to the study, Almaty CHP-2 emitted 94 tons of PM 2.5 into the atmosphere in 2024.

The Climate TRACE tool clearly visualizes the dispersion of PM 2.5 – fine particulate matter most hazardous to human health. For Almaty, the modelling results illustrate potential emission scenarios under both average and worst-case meteorological conditions, showing the scale of possible impact on residential areas.

For many years, Almaty’s CHP-2 and CHP-3, which burn high-ash coal, have been considered among the main contributors to elevated PM 2.5 levels in the city. Due to solid-fuel combustion during the winter and unfavourable weather conditions, Almaty occasionally topped the global ranking of the most polluted cities in the world during the last season, according to the Swiss platform IQAir.

The Almaty Air Initiative supports the city’s transition of heat and power plants to natural gas, which is expected to reduce emissions from CHP-2 by approximately 12 times and from CHP-3 by 8 to 9 times. However, fuel conversion alone is not enough: a systematic approach is required — installing modern filters, introducing automated emissions monitoring, publishing open data, maintaining dialogue with energy companies, and analysing public exposure through independent monitoring and local datasets.

To this end, the Almaty Air Initiative, together with the Nurlan Smagulov Foundation, has installed 200 air-quality sensors across Almaty and the surrounding region. Their data are already available and will soon be published on open platforms.

Zhuldyz Saulebekova, Executive Director of Almaty Air Initiative:
“The interactive Climate TRACE map, based on satellite monitoring and artificial

intelligence, helps us understand the sources of pollution in Almaty and other Kazakhstani cities more precisely. It is an important tool for an honest conversation about the link between energy and health. Yes, the country still depends on coal, and with the rapid growth of technologies and AI, energy consumption will continue to rise. But innovation and modernisation must become the key to reducing harm — public health is an essential part of this equation. A healthy population means a strong Kazakhstan. This is our future and our children.”

It is worth noting that Climate TRACE also shows similar patterns for Bishkek, where the city’s Combined Heat and Power Plant is likewise among the top 10 % of “super emitters” and remains one of the main PM 2.5 sources along with residential coal heating. This is a common regional issue requiring joint action and shared experience.

Background:
Climate TRACE is an international coalition that uses satellite data and artificial intelligence to independently monitor emissions. In 2024, it launched a tool for visualising PM 2.5 plumes.

How it works:
– Technology: the project employs artificial intelligence, machine learning and the processing of satellite and sensor data.
– Data: information is collected from over 300 satellites and more than 11,000 air, land and marine sensors, as well as other public and commercial sources.
– Result: an interactive global map of emission sources is created, allowing users to see where and when emissions occur with unprecedented accuracy.